Alys Beach Real Estate Market: Historical Trends and Future Predictions

Alys Beach Real Estate Market: Historical Trends and Future Predictions

It's a tall order for any community to stand out along 30A in the celebrated Emerald Coast region of Florida's panhandle. Such is the level of coastal luxury along the white shores of the Gulf of Mexico. If the goal is to rise above a widely revered collection of luxury destinations, it helps to come to the table with a promise of something unique and immensely spectacular.

Enter Alys Beach.

About Alys Beach

Neatly tucked between 30A neighbors Seacrest and Rosemary Beach, Alys Beach cuts a stunning profile for the uninitiated approaching from either end of 30A. Traveling from the east or west, twin butteries — forms inspired by food-storage buildings in Bermuda — usher you into a corridor of perfectly aligned palm trees and perfectly trimmed 8-foot tall hedgerows.

It's only a half-mile drive between the assured yet understated structures, which also feature framed tiles depicting the history and heritage of the area. But that half-mile is a gateway into 30As boldest, most strikingly beautiful community. Alys Beach's dramatic display of New Urbanism is bathed in stark white stucco and easily accessible by foot. After 20 years of development, courtesy of Khoury & Vogt Architects, Alys Beach feels equally as established as 30A's original New Urbanism enclave of Seaside, seven miles to the west.

The neighborhood

By now, the picture-perfect Alys Beach — where pictures are famously frowned upon — has earned its reputation as a bespoke outlier in the world of planned communities. It's a visionary community designed to embody the essence of a sustainable, pedestrian-friendly lifestyle. Homeowners are attracted to the commitment to creating spaces that challenge residents to embrace a compact, environmentally conscious lifestyle where walkability, convenience, and accessible public spaces are paramount.

The meticulously paved streets and stone pathways of Alys Beach draw the eye, leading to grandiose front entrances, archways, and balconies that showcase simplicity amid grandeur. Thoughtfully aligned streets and pathways sit perpendicular to the ocean, a strategic orientation for capturing refreshing sea breezes while fostering a seamless connection with the natural environment. Sculptural art pieces, fountains, the lavish Caliza Pool, and an array of green spaces, including Arboleda Park, The Amphitheatre, Central Park, and a 20-acre nature preserve with a 1,800-foot-long elevated boardwalk, enhance the visual and physical enjoyment of the area.

The homes

Homes in Alys Beach are a captivating blend of innovation and environmental resilience. In addition to pockets of bespoke luxury condos, the neighborhood features three primary residential house types — the courtyard home, the compound, and the villa. Designed with hyper-specific aesthetics, each home is highly livable art as much as it is intelligent and sublime architecture.

The villas are the community's only freestanding homes. Set upon their own lot, they offer a sense of the familiar even as the striking facades and lavishly appointed interiors suggest otherwise.

The courtyard and compound homes, however, best capture the intended spirit of the Alys Beach lifestyle via design and lifestyle. The definition of zero-lot residences, both styles make excellent, economical use of their respective plots, trading outer lawns for private interior courtyards. Courtyard homes offer their namesake fully enclosed, while the compounds promise an airy series of auxiliary buildings linked together via walls and loggias.

All three floorplan options — expected to adhere to strict but aesthetically vital community architectural standards — are allowed owner-driven accouterments, including small pools, terraces, and landscaped gardens. Interiors are less exacting but maintain similar aesthetics and luxuries. Owners and architects jump at the opportunity to impart their interpretation of Alys Beach luxury.

Alys Beach market trends

Only a month and a half into 2024, and the past year's market performance remains fresh in the minds of would-be homeowners and investors. Particularly after a year that saw mortgage rates top out at a 23-year high in late October. Although the rates and some economic concerns have abated, a level of uncertainty that's been absent for the past few years returned to the Emerald Coast.

Just past the midway point of 2023, Alys Beach noted that 65% of the community is sold, with approximately 50% of the area's 158 acres built out. Property-wise, that translates to roughly 400 to 450 homes yet to emerge. Construction is continuing at a brisk pace, with more phases expected to come online throughout 2024, including condo units at The Della condo building and those at the Dannelly & Varian development.

Single-family home prices in Alys Beach range from $3.5 million to more than $10 million. Condos are available from $3 million to over $5 million. The hottest commodities in Alys Beach are lots offered from $1.4 million to nearly $4.5 million for those adjacent to the beach. The most recent sales numbers for Alys Beach include:

  • Since January 1, 2024, there have been five home sales in Alys Beach, with an average sales price of $5.79 million. Over the same six-week period in 2023, only two homes had sold, with an average of $6.88 million.

  • For Q4 2023, Alys Beach had eight single-family home sales with an average price of $5.53 million. Comparatively, Q4 2022 saw the same number of sales, eight, but at an average sales price of $5.97 million.

  • List to sale ratio for Q4 2023 was 98% versus 100% in Q4 2022.

  • Inventory was up in Q4 2023, entering the new year at four months of inventory compared to two months at the end of 2022. Single-family homes sold during Q4 2023 stayed on the market for 24 days, up considerably from the Q3 2022 average of 16 days.
Despite a slightly slower Q4 2023, during which interest rates and economic uncertainty peaked for the year, there is very little statistical difference between 2023 and 2022. Overall, 2023 sales were down 3%, the difference of one less sale. Average sale price dipped only 2%, from $6.48 million in 2022 to $6.36 million in 2023.

Forecast for 2024

As we move past the halfway point of the first quarter of 2024, sales are already off to a better start than the previous two years. The demand for Alys Beach's unique approach to coastal luxury is attracting buyers to the eastern end of the 30A corridor. Since the first shovel broke ground nearly 20 years ago, the full vision of Alys Beach is coming into form. Buyers looking to get in at a reasonable price may find the first half of 2023 the best time. The recent uptick in inventory means a broader choice of home—and homesite—and less competition before the historically active late-spring buying season.

Those buyers planning to come to the table with financing will also want to pay attention to the movement of mortgage rates. Jumbo mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan have leveled off in the 7.25% range for February 2024 after spending four of the past six months much closer to 8%. Although many forecasts suggest that rates will continue to drop throughout the year, the notion of "buy now, refinance later" might become a strategic approach for buyers aiming to secure their spot in Alys Beach amidst fluctuating rates.

For sellers, as has been the case for the prior 12 months, the market continues to present a positive space for those looking to capitalize on Alys Beach's popularity. However, as developers release more phases, yours will be one of many properties in which buyers and investors take interest. Much like location, timing is everything in real estate, and you'll want to pay close attention to market dynamics if you hope to maximize an investment within the next six months.

Are you ready to make a move in fast-developing Alys Beach?

Whether you're in the market to purchase an Alys Beach home or condo or want to take advantage of a marketplace that's rewarding patients and would-be sellers, contact The Gardner Group today to start your Alys Beach real estate journey. Our unparalleled experience and expertise will help you navigate Florida's Emerald Coast and the 30A region and ensure your next Alys Beach transaction is highly lucrative and deeply rewarding.

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